As the security situation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has deteriorated rapidly in the first few weeks of 2025, Castor Vali has been supporting clients with a range of services including Security Information Services and Corporate Security offerings.
Most notably, through a combination of an embedded Castor Vali security manager that was supported by our in-house intelligence and travel security team, Castor Vali was able to make a timely and strategic decision to relocate a multinational client’s personnel and their dependents out of Goma in January. The decision ultimately ensured business continuity and safety of staff as M23 rebels closed in and continued to advance.
Understanding the Context: A Timeline of Escalation
The crisis in North Kivu had reached a critical point by mid-January 2025. M23 rebels, reportedly supported and resourced by Rwanda, methodically initiated a gradual takeover of key towns surrounding Goma, the capital of North Kivu region, severing key supply routes. Communications and utility services were cut off in surrounding towns and thousands were displaced, leaving the city highly vulnerable to advance by the militant group.
Key events tracked by our embedded consultant and Security Information Services team during this period were as follows:
- 21 January: The fall of Minova signaled a major turning point, effectively severing food supply lines from South Kivu.
- 23 January: The M23 capture of Sake, 20km west of Goma, allowed the rebel group to position itself strategically for an eventual entry into the city of Goma.
- 24 January: Communications and infrastructure in Goma deteriorated as FARDC forces struggled to mount effective counter-offensives. Regional diplomatic efforts attempted mediation in vain, and the ceasefire announcements were widely regarded as tactical pauses rather than genuine peace efforts, affording M23 time to regroup and re-supply.
- 25 January: The reality of an imminent siege became clear. With power, water, and medical services overwhelmed, an attack was imminent. Relocation plans were activated for the client.
- 27 January: M23 forces took Goma, confirming the rationale of the preemptive relocation executed days earlier.
Triggers and the Decision-Making Process
From the outset, Castor Vali’s embedded consultant emphasised the importance of preemptive action to the client. Based on intelligence and historical conflict patterns, with clear and explicit indicators evident, it was unequivocal that the fall of Goma was not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’. Key triggers that prompted the final decision included:
- The systematic blocking of all access roads to Goma, cutting supplies, communications, water and power, thereby weakening the city.
- The increasing volume of displaced populations from Sake, Minova, Masisi and Rutshuru, seeking refuge in Goma, straining its collapsed resources.
- The announcement by M23 of an intent to ‘liberate’ Goma, indicating an assertive objective to control the Kivu region regardless, and a readiness to strike imminently.
- The failure of FARDC to mount a credible counter-offensive. This, compounded by desertions, disorganisation and sub-standard training, and lack of a united front from the six key factions supporting FARDC (FDLR – former genocide perpetrators and key catalyst in this conflict -, Wazelendo, MONUSCO, SADC, Burundi, Romanian Mercenaries), meant that a successful counter-offensive was highly unlikely.
By 25 January, it was clear that the window for relocation of staff and dependents was closing. While this is not a decision that any company believes it will have to make, the Client’s Senior Leadership Team, after reflection on Castor Vali’s alerts and advice from the embedded advisor, authorised the immediate relocation of remaining staff.
By the morning of 26 January, all personnel were on transit in Rubavu, and onward to Kigali, Rwanda and other states in the region. It was 36 hours later that Rubavu was shelled by FARDC elements from outside Goma across the border.
Notably, a crucial distinction was made early in discussions with the client: Relocation across the border rather than Evacuation. The latter suggested a permanent departure, which could have implications for business continuity and stakeholder confidence. Instead, a structured relocation plan was devised and implemented to ensure that staff and their dependents were not in the firing line, allowing the client to maintain operational integrity.
Lessons Learned
Every crisis produces an opportunity for lessons to build into the strategic planning of a company or group. Key takeaways from this operation included the following:
- Intelligence and Local Networks: Castor Vali’s reliance on both structured intelligence sources and local informants proved crucial, developed over years of expertise and deep familiarity with the DRC. This emphasised the necessity of maintaining ground operatives in conflict zones to provide real-time, evidence-based reporting, rather than depending solely on open sources and social media.
- Pre-Positioning of Resources: Arrangements for accommodation, transport, and documentation must be completed well ahead of time to avoid unnecessary delays that could ultimately trap personnel within a conflict zone. Further as pivotal are pre-recced routes to the border, ports or assembly points, in addition to good rapport with border officials and logistics providers and communications networks. This should all be established ahead of time.
- Clear Communication: Internally and in the public eye of stakeholders and funders, defining ‘relocation’ versus ‘evacuation’ was crucial in maintaining business continuity. This provided the assurance for the client that this was not a departure from the contract commitment and operations were not under threat of cessation.
Looking Ahead
The situation in the DRC remains highly volatile, and there is a long road ahead before any semblance of stability. While conflict developments to date have focused on Goma and as of this past weekend, Bukavu further south, the current dynamics risk prompting political violence in the capital and even a wider conflict as multiple regional players become involved.
The recent events in Goma should serve as a stark reminder of the importance of preparedness, adaptability, and swift execution in the face of uncertainty. It is of vital interest to companies operating in such environments to have a robust intelligence capability within their risk analysis structure to support operational planning and ensure that they are always a step ahead of unfolding crises. In this instance, the client successfully safeguarded their personnel by procuring the services of a Castor Vali embedded security manager highly familiar with the local environment, supported by ongoing intelligence from our in-house analytical team.
Indeed, many clients do not have the bandwidth to know the security environments of all their operational markets as intimately as they should. At Castor Vali, we frequently support clients in the most challenging environments with a dual combination of an embedded security manager who is supported by the entire Castor Vali back-office team, including our Security Information Services and Journey Management departments.
To learn more about our intelligence offerings, including free trials of DRC security alerts, and embedded consultancy offerings, visit our Africa Risk Monitoring and Corporate Security pages.
